EUR/USD: Euro-zone’s economy contracted at its sharpest pace in 1Q 2020

EURUSD

EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.0818 on Friday.

On the macro front, Euro-zone’s gross domestic product (GDP) slid 3.8% on quarterly basis in first quarter of 2020, marking its biggest fall since the series started in 1995 and compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The preliminary figures had indicated a fall of 3.8%. Additionally, seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed to €23.5 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €25.6 billion in the previous month. Separately, Germany’s GDP dropped 2.2% on quarterly basis in first quarter of 2020, recording its biggest fall since 2009 and in line with market forecast. In the prior quarter, GDP had recorded a revised fall of 0.1%. Moreover, the producer price index fell 0.7% on a monthly basis in April, more than market expectations for a drop of 0.6% and compared to a fall of 0.8% in the previous month.

In the US, the Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 73.7 in May, defying market expectations for a drop to a level of 68.0 and compared to a reading of 71.8 in the prior month. Additionally, the NY Empire State manufacturing index advanced to -48.5 in May, more than market expectations for a rise to a level of -63.5 and compared to a reading of -78.2 in the earlier month. Moreover, industrial production plunged 11.2% on a monthly basis in April, amid the COVID-19 pandemic and less than market expectations for a drop of 11.5%. In the previous month, industrial production had recorded a revised drop of 4.5%. Meanwhile, retail sales slumped 16.4% on a monthly basis in April, more than market expectations for a drop of 12.0% and compared to a revised fall of 8.3% in the prior month. Furthermore, business inventories fell 0.2% in March, in line with market consensus and compared to a revised drop of 0.5%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0825, with the EUR trading 0.06% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0792, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0760. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0854, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0884.

In absence of crucial macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would keep a close watch on the US NAHB housing market index for May, slated to release later today.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

This entry was posted in EUR/USD. Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.