EUR/USD: Policymakers could start considering stimulus exit in June: ECB minutes


EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.1107.

According to the minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest meeting, board members generally agreed that June would be a better timing to start considering shifting towards an exit from the stimulus efforts as growth prospects for the common currency region had further improved. However, policy makers also noted that the outlook for inflation remained fragile, given the continued uncertainty across the Euro-zone.

The greenback gained ground against its major peers, following the release of upbeat economic data in the US and hawkish comments from the Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Loretta Mester.

Data indicated that the number of Americans filing for fresh jobless claims surprisingly fell to a nearly three-month low level of 232.0K in the week ended 13 May 2017, compared to market consensus for a rise to a level of 240.0K. Initial jobless claims had registered a reading of 236.0K in the previous week. Additionally, the nation’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly advanced to a level of 38.8 in May, surpassing market expectations for a drop to a level of 18.5. In the prior month, the index had recorded a reading of 22.0. Moreover, the nation’s leading indicator rose less-than-anticipated by 0.3% in April, following a revised similar rise in the previous month, while markets expected for a gain of 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, reiterated her call for further interest rate hikes, as the economy is about to reach its dual mandate of full employment and 2.0% inflation.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1102, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1063, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1024. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1151, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1200.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on the Euro-zone’s flash consumer confidence for May, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

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