EUR/USD: EU lowers Euro-zone’s 2018 GDP forecast


EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.11% against the USD and closed at 1.1662, after the European Commission downgraded Eurozone’s growth outlook, citing trade war concerns.

The European Commission, in its latest Summer Interim Economic Forecast report, slashed Eurozone’s growth forecast to 2.1% from 2.3% in 2018 and 2.0% for 2019. However, the European Union projected that growth momentum was expected to strengthen in the second half of 2018.

On the macro data front, the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted industrial production rebounded 1.3% on a monthly basis in May, higher than market expectations for an advance of 1.2%. In the prior month, industrial production had recorded a revised drop of 0.8%.

Meanwhile, Germany’s final consumer price (CPI) index advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in June, meeting market expectations and confirming the preliminary print. In the previous month, the CPI had recorded a rise of 0.5%.

In the US, data showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 2.9% on an annual basis in June, at par with market expectations. The CPI had recorded a rise of 2.8% in the previous month. Additionally, the nation’s seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims eased to a 2-month low level of 214.0K in the week ended 06 July, more than market expectations for a drop to a level of 225.0K. In the preceding week, initial jobless claims had registered a revised reading of 232.0K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1668, with the EUR trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1647, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1625. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1693, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1717.

In absence of key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would direct their attention to the US Michigan consumer sentiment index for July, slated to release, later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

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