Both the AUD and NZD fell after disappointing domestic data releases. Unusually, the euro carried on regardless and further consolidated its recent gains. The possibility of a deal between Greece and private sector bond holders appears to be growing, according to the Financial Times. Continue reading →

Japan’s Finance Minister Azumi spoke but, unlike yesterday, did not mention EURJPY specifically. Intervention was still on his mind though. He said it would be hard for Japan to emulate the Swiss approach and defend a particular line in the sand, noting that the supply of yen in global markets is vast. This is the first time this idea has been so firmly rejected. He warned though that Japan stood ready to take firm steps against speculative FX moves. Continue reading →

The euro experienced a double-dose of upside during the Asia session. First, Japan’s Finance Minister Azumi raised the possibility of intervention in EURJPY, but said he has not yet made a decision on the matter. We see the immediate intervention risk as remote, but investors were in no mood to take chances. China’s Q4 GDP growth then came in stronger than expected, boosting the euro and taking AUDUSD briefly through 1.04. EURUSD traded 1.2649-1.2737, USDJPY 76.67-76.88. Continue reading →

The euro’s rebound continued during the Asia session, buoyed by yesterday’s rally across Eurozone sovereign bond markets. EURUSD traded 1.2807-1.2873, USDJPY traded 76.69-76.84. Continue reading →

The euro gave back most of yesterday’s gains during an otherwise quiet Asia session. EURUSD traded 1.2729-1.2793 and USDJPY 76.80-76.94. The recent barrage of Fed commentary continues. On Tuesday, officials sounded cautious on their overall views on the US economy, though there seemed to be diverging opinions on just how to proceed in the immediate future. Continue reading →

Risk appetite nudged higher in Asia after China’s December trade surplus came in well above consensus. AUD and NZD advanced throughout the session and even the euro staged a modest comeback. Surprisingly, AUD was not held back by the very weak China import numbers which were the root cause of the wider trade surplus. Continue reading →

In a typical prelude to a US payrolls release, FX markets traded in very tight ranges in Asia until newswires reported speculation of a nuclear incident in North Korea. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo later rejected the idea, but not before EURUSD broke to new 15-month lows, and AUDUSD dropped 20 pips. Continue reading →

FX markets traded mostly sideways during the Asia session, although the dollar enjoyed a very modest bid tone. News reports over the state of Spain’s governments and banks are leading to further uncertainty, even though the overall story is not new. As such, we still regard any rally above 1.30 in EURUSD as unsustainable. Continue reading →

Markets mostly trod water during the Asia session as the absence of news headlines and G10 economic data releases provided no incentive to participate. It was Japan’s first day back after the holiday season, but activity is still well below typical daily levels. The FOMC minutes from the December meeting confirmed that several members are still uncomfortable with the current pledge to keep rates unchanged until mid-2013. This should not come as any surprise given three dissenting votes were cast when the policy language was first adopted. Of greater interest were plans to change the Fed’s communication strategy. This strategy has been in flux for over a year now and, as a result, the Fed Chairman now gives post-meeting press conferences four times per year. Continue reading →

Risk currencies got off to a good start overnight with most of Asia returning from the holiday season. A strong non-manufacturing China PMI helped to keep risk sentiment supported, although the rise in FX was already underway. This latest data print complements China’s manufacturing PMI released over the weekend which was also surprisingly firm. AUD, the chief beneficiary, briefly touched 1.0300 having spent the past three weeks trading below, and NZD is firmly back above 0.78. EURUSD also reached higher ground, trading in a range of 1.2922-1.2989. Continue reading →

Financial markets remain sleepy, although data and news flow has started to pick up. Continue reading →