EUR/USD: Euro-zone’s GDP growth holds steady at 0.4% in the last three months of 2016


EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.0565.

In economic news, the Euro-zone’ seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) was confirmed at 0.4% on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2016, at par with market expectations, buoyed by a rebound in investment spending and an increase in private consumption. In the previous quarter, the region’s GDP had registered a revised similar rise.

Separately, Germany’s seasonally adjusted factory orders slid more-than-expected by 7.4% on a monthly basis in January, declining at its steepest pace in eight years, amid weaker demand for investment goods. Market participants anticipated for a drop of 2.5%, compared to a rise of 5.2% in the prior month.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its latest economic outlook report, retained its 2017 growth projection for the Euro-zone at 1.6%, but the outlook for next year was slashed to 1.6%.

Additionally, the OECD projected that global economic growth is set to continue a “modest recovery over the next two years and maintained its earlier growth forecast of around 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2018, but warned that the modest recovery may be derailed by financial vulnerabilities and political uncertainties.

In the US, data indicated that trade deficit widened to a level of $48.5 billion in January, at par with market expectations and compared a deficit of $44.3 billion in the previous month. Also, the nation’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index dropped to a level of 55.3 in March, following a reading of 56.4 in the prior month. On the other hand, the nation’s consumer credit grew by $8.8 billion in January, compared to market consensus for it to rise by $17.1 billion and after climbing by a revised $14.8 billion in December.

Meanwhile, the OECD revised up its 2017 growth forecast for US as it expects economic growth to pick up this year on fiscal stimulus plans. It lifted its growth projections to 2.4% for this year, while the forecast for next year was trimmed to 2.8% from 3.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0564, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0546, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0528. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0592, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0620.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to German industrial production for January, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, ADP employment change for February and wholesale inventories for January, both scheduled to release later in the day, will garner a lot of market attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

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