North Korean media announced that leader Kim Jong-il died over the weekend, sending USDJPY briefly higher. Officials from Japan and the Republic of Korea stressed that both countries remain on their guard, although the yen recovered when fears of an immediate military reaction receded. Although Kim Jong-il had already picked his third son Kim Jong-un as the next head of state, a smooth leadership transition is by no means guaranteed, and we remain cautious on the yen in the immediate future given the headline risk. Continue reading →