EURUSD Movement
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.2474, following positive Q3 GDP data in Germany.
Yesterday, data from Germany indicated that the nation avoided recession after its seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.1% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, following a 0.1% contraction registered in the preceding quarter, thus fuelling optimism over the economic health of the Euro-zone’s biggest economy. Meanwhile, Germany’s private consumption registered a rise of 0.7% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, higher than market expectations for an advance of 0.3% and compared to an increase of 0.1% recorded in the previous quarter.
In other economic news, exports in Germany climbed 1.9% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, beating market expectations for a rise of 1.4%. Additionally, the nation’s imports advanced 1.7% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, compared to a revised advance of 1.1% recorded in the prior quarter.
Elsewhere, in Italy, monthly retail sales eased 0.1% in September, following a revised drop of 0.2% registered in August, while the industrial business climate index in France jumped to a level of 94.0 in November, up from a reading of 91.0 in October and compared to market expectations of a rise to 92.0.
In the US, the second estimate of annualized GDP rose 3.9% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, exceeding market expectations for a rise of 3.3%, while the preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 3.5%. Meanwhile, the nation’s consumer confidence index surprisingly deteriorated to 88.7 in November, registering its lowest level since June, compared to market expectations to advance to a level of 96.0. On the other hand, the nation’s personal consumption increased 2.2% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2014, following a rise of 2.5% registered in the prior quarter. Markets were anticipating personal consumption to advance 1.9% in 3Q. Also, the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas registered a rise of 0.34% on a monthly basis in September, more than market expectations for an advance of 0.25%. The index had registered a revised drop of 0.12% in the previous month.
Separately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in its latest economic outlook report, indicated that the global economic growth and worldwide trade will remain modest over the next two years. The report expressed concerns about the lingering inflation problems in the Euro-zone economy. The organization forecast a global economic growth of 3.25% in 2014, followed by 3.75% in 2015 and just below 4.00% in 2016.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2471, with the EUR trading a tad lower from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2420, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2368. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2505, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2539.
Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the crucial US durable goods orders data, scheduled later today.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
