GBPUSD Movement
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.6250, ahead of the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum.
In economic news, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK dropped to a level of 6.2% for the three months ended July, marking its lowest level since 2008 and compared to market expectations of a drop to 6.3%. It follows a level of 6.4% registered in the previous three month period. Additionally, the claimant count rate in Britain fell to 2.9% in August, in line with market projections and down from 3% in July, as the number of people claiming jobless allowances declined by 37,200 in August, higher than market expectations of a decline of 30,000 and compared to prior month’s decline of 37,400. The average weekly earnings index rebounded sharply, registering a rise of 0.6%, on an annual basis, in the three months to July, after registering a 0.1% decline in the three months to June. Market expectations were for a 0.5% gain.
Separately, minutes of the BoE’s policy meeting in September indicated that two members, Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty continued to press their case for an immediate hike in interest rate, although the majority kept their stance unchanged. It further indicated that the monetary policy committee (MPC) members were unanimous on maintaining the asset purchase facility at £375 billion.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.6267, with the GBP trading 0.1% higher from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6223, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6179. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6335, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6403.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be mainly determined by the Scottish independence vote. Meanwhile investors would also pay attention to the UK retail sales data, scheduled in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
