FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
The House postponed its vote on the Boehner plan, first until Thursday night, and then indefinitely. USDJPY fell quite significantly on the headline. During the Asia session, EURUSD traded 1.4281-1.4364 and USDJPY traded 77.46-77.87. House Republicans are now due to meet at 1500GMT on Friday to discuss a way forward, which suggests that no House vote is likely before then. The vote itself is likely to be symbolic as Democrats in the Senate have vowed to kill the measure. House Majority Leader Cantor has already said that the Senate plans on being in session during the weekend.
On the data front, US jobless claims were better than expected at 398k, while Pending Home Sales came in better at 2.4%m/m (cons. -2.0%). Although the economic outlook for the US remains troubling, there is no concise evidence that a major downturn is afoot, though many policymakers have warned that failure to raise the debt ceiling and potential disruptions could further undermine the economy. Ahead on Friday investors will continue to follow the US debt ceiling debate, but the data focus will be on US GDP (UBSe. 2.0%q/q) and the Chicago PMI.
EUR
Moody’s put Spain’s Aa2 on review for a possible downgrade, noting that any actual downgrade would likely be one notch only. S&P currently rates Spain at the same level (AA), while Fitch’s rating on Spain is one notch higher (AA+). Moody’s cited the increased vulnerability of government finances, and the risk that the recent increases in funding costs will be sustained.
German and French Finance Ministers published a joint article in the Financial Times, stressing the importance of the EFSF’s new capabilities, but more importantly displaying a united front and sending a message to investors that the Eurozone’s core members remain ready to defend the currency union at all costs.
German unemployment in July fell 11k, slightly lesser than expectations for a fall of 15k. However, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.0%.
ECB’s Mersch says ECB must prevent second-round effects, and suggested that commodity-price inflation may be more persistent. This falls in line with recent hawkish rhetoric from other ECB members.
JPY
The rhetoric of Finance Minister Noda escalated a notch overnight, but USDJPY still took no notice. He said the yen is strengthening too much, and that has deviated from Japan’s economic fundamentals. He added that he hopes to take appropriate action in cooperation with the BoJ on the yen’s rise. Implying that his patience was wearing thin he said he will carefully examine how long Japan can leave the latest FX moves unattended.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURCHF 1.1374 key support.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4401 would reinforce the bull trend; next resistance comes in at 1.4536. Initial support is at 1.4187, Fibonacci level.
USDJPY BEARISH Pressure on initial support at 77.39, a move below which would expose 76.25, the key low. Resistance is at 78.17.
GBPUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.6442 would open 1.6496. Support lies at 1.6262.
USDCHF BEARISH Support lies at 0.7927, a push below which would expose 0.7705, a channel lower drawn off Feb 11 high. Resistance is at 0.8178.
AUDUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.1081, a break of which would open the way towards 1.1198. Initial support lies at 1.0796.
USDCAD BEARISH A push through 0.9458 would expose 0.9407. Near-term resistance is at 0.9531.
EURCHF BEARISH Key support is at 1.1374, a fall below this would signal weakness towards 1.1288. Near-term resistance is at 1.1663.
EURGBP BEARISH Move below 0.8705 would open the way for further losses towards 0.8657. Resistance is at 0.8806.
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of 110.66 would expose support at 109.58, a key low. Initial resistance is at 112.10.
SCHEDULE
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